Sunday, May 8, 2011

How Could There Bee a Mammoth Vacation

Conversely, the statistical data has some segments of the market dropping another 10 to 20% in the last year. The various segments in the market have very different supply and demand characteristics. Some segments of the market have lots of “cookie cutter” supply, and some don’t. Some condo projects don’t turn over at all, or very little. Some of the properties built and sold in the peak of the market have devalued greater than others. Some sold properties were foreclosures with more aggressive (price reducing) investor/sellers.
The higher end of the single-family market has devalued more than the lower end. Many high-end homes were built on speculation and ended up distressed and/or foreclosed on. And forget appraisals; if the appraiser isn’t also active in real estate sales, or communicating daily with the agents, then they are out of touch. So, the market is all over the place.
As I’ve said many times in the past few years, we’ll only see the bottom in the rearview mirror. And anyone who drives a car knows if you spend too much time looking in the rearview mirror you’re likely to miss something very important in front of you.
Calling bottoms is fashionable for some, but it is also risky if you have anything to lose. People who call bottoms usually have very little to lose. People (like buyers and sellers) who are betting (or not betting) their dollars on bottoms have far more to lose, or gain. And more and more people “just want to get on with it.”
The Frustrated Buyers post was very much written from personal and professional experience. As humans we all have events etched in our minds that if we could return to them, and take advantage of them based on what we know now, we would do things differently. (Yes, I’m in the middle of a mid-life crisis.)
The Mammoth real estate market is full of them. Many buyers are incessantly perusing the Internet for new Mammoth listings that are equivalent to some property they almost, or did, make an offer on and lost out. Most times they offered too little, sometimes they acted too slowly. Regardless, today they can’t find a replacement, or the similar property is priced significantly higher. But does that create a bottom?

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